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Title Modeling growth options and structural change to reach middle income country status: The case of Ghana
Full text http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VB1-4V1MFJN-1/2/d8f172dbfcd58fb72e032e123365888a
Author(s) Breisinger, Clemens; Diao, Xinshen; Thurlow, James
Abstract This paper develops a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model to evaluate sources of accelerated growth and structural transformation. It goes beyond stylized and aggregate general equilibrium models by examining country-specific growth options to reach middle income country (MIC) status. We first examine a set of countries that have successfully transformed their economies to inform model and scenario building. We then simulate potentials and trade-offs of selected sector- and factor-specific growth paths for Ghana. Results show that no individual sector's growth acceleration is sufficient for Ghana to reach MIC status by 2015. Manufacturing growth is constrained by its high dependency on agricultural inputs indicating the need for diversification. Services can support rather than drive economy-wide growth. Agriculture must remain the mainstay of economy-wide growth. While this will delay structural change in sectoral composition, it demonstrates that emphasizing agriculture is a viable option for some countries to reach MIC status. - Dynamic CGE model Economic transformation Growth strategy Middle-income developing countries Ghana
Type of publication article
Identifier RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:26:y:2009:i:2:p:514-525
Repository RePEc - Research Papers in Economics
Added to C-A: 2009-06-22;10:16:46