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Title
Renewable energy in North Africa: Modeling of future electricity scenarios and the impact on manufacturing and employment |
Full text
http://tud.qucosa.de/id/qucosa%3A28865; http://tud.qucosa.de/api/qucosa%3A28865/attachment/ATT-0/ |
Date
2014 |
Author(s)
Kost, Christoph Philipp |
Contributor(s)
Möst, Dominik; Günther, Edeltraud; Technische Universität Dresden |
Abstract
The transition of the North African electricity system towards renewable energy technologies is analyzed in this thesis. Large potentials of photovoltaics (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP) and onshore wind power provide the opportunity to achieve a long-term shift from conventional power sources to a highly interconnected and sustainable electricity system based on renewable energy sources (RES). A multi-dimensional analysis evaluates the economic and technical effects on the electricity market as well as the socio-economic impact on manufacturing and employment caused by the large deployment of renewable energy technologies. The integration of renewable energy (RE) into the electricity system is modeled in a linear optimization model RESlion which minimizes total system costs of the long-term expansion planning and the hourly generation dispatch problem. With this model, the long-term portfolio mix of technologies, their site selection, required transmission capacities and the hourly operation are analyzed. The focus is set on the integration of renewable energy in the electricity systems of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt with the option to export electricity to Southern European countries. The model results of RESlion show that a very equal portfolio mix consisting of PV, CSP and onshore wind power is optimal in long-term scenarios for the electricity system. Until the year 2050, renewable energy sources dominate with over 70% the electricity generation due to their cost competiveness to conventional power sources. In the case of flexible and dispatchable electricity exports to Europe, all three RE technologies are used by the model at a medium cost perspective. The socio-economic impact of the scenarios is evaluated by a decision model (RETMD) for local manufacturing and job creation in the renewable energy sector which is developed by incorporating findings from expert interviews in the RE industry sector. The electricity scenarios are assessed regarding their potential to create local economic impact and local jobs in manufacturing RE components and constructing RE power plants. With 40,000 to 100,000 new jobs in the RE sector of North African countries, scenarios with substantial RE deployment can provide enormous benefits to the labor market and lead to additional economic growth. The deployment of renewable energy sources in North Africa is consequently accelerated and facilitated by finding a trade-off between an optimal technology portfolio from an electricity system perspective and the opportunities through local manufacturing. By developing two model approaches for evaluating the effects of renewable energy technologies in the electricity system and in the industrial sector, this thesis contributes to the literature on energy economics and energy policy for the large-scale integration of renewable energy in North Africa.:Abstractiii Acknowledgementiv Table of contentsv List of tablesix List of figuresxii List of abbreviationsxvi 1Introduction1 1.1Renewable energy in North Africa2 1.2Research questions and aim of this thesis3 1.2.1Modeling of electricity systems4 1.2.2Modeling of manufacturing and employment impact6 1.2.3Optimal renewable energy scenarios6 1.3Related research7 1.4Structure of thesis7 2Modeling fundamentals for electricity systems with renewable energy sources9 2.1Energy system modeling9 2.2Electricity models16 2.2.1Classifications and taxonomy17 2.2.2Differences between operation models and planning models20 2.2.3Typical modeling approaches21 2.3Optimization models23 2.3.1Basic model structure23 2.3.2Objective functions of electricity models24 2.3.3Technical aspects of electricity systems as models constraints26 2.3.4Combining different objectives in energy scenarios27 2.4Models for high shares of renewable energy28 2.5Models for North African electricity systems31 2.6Conclusions for model development34 3Electricity system of North Africa36 3.1Market structure36 3.2National targets for renewable energy40 3.2.1Morocco40 3.2.2Algeria41 3.2.3Tunisia42 3.2.4Libya42 3.2.5Egypt43 3.3Long-term development of electricity demand44 3.4Electricity exports to Europe47 3.5Geopolitical risks for the electricity system51 4Development of the electricity market model RESlion53 4.1Model requirements and modeling goals53 4.2Modeling of renewable energy technologies56 4.2.1Onshore wind power plants and wind resources59 4.2.2PV power plants and solar resources61 4.2.3CSP plants and solar resources63 4.2.4Hydro power plants and energy storage systems65 4.3General model approach of RESlion65 4.4Model description of RESlion69 4.4.1Introduction to the model structure69 4.4.2Temporal coverage70 4.4.3Objective function72 4.4.4Technology independent model constraints74 4.4.5Regional electricity exchange: Transmission lines76 4.4.6Renewable energy technologies78 4.4.7Hydro and storage power plants80 4.4.8Uncertainty of input parameters and assumptions81 4.5Modeling of expansion planning83 4.6Modeling of detailed hourly generation dispatch83 4.7Extension options to a Mixed Integer Linear Programming model84 4.8Solver selection and implementation environment85 5Model-based analysis of future electricity scenarios for North Africa86 5.1Scenario assumptions86 5.2Scenario definition89 5.3Technical and economic input data94 5.4Model adjustment99 5.4.1Electricity generation in reference year 201099 5.4.2Testing of results with detailed hourly generation dispatch100 5.5Electricity scenarios for North Africa by 2050102 5.5.1Development of the generation system102 5.5.2System and generation costs106 5.5.3Site selection of RES generation capacities108 5.5.4Regional transmission lines114 5.5.5Energy storage systems118 5.5.6Technology specific generation119 5.5.7CO2 emissions126 5.6Sensitivity analyses126 5.6.1Adaption of market conditions: Split of electricity markets127 5.6.2Technology focus127 5.6.3Adaption of cost trends for fossil fuels, transmission lines and storage systems129 5.7Technology specific findings for CSP, PV and wind power131 5.7.1Typical sites and locations for electricity generation from RES131 5.7.2Influence of wind speeds and solar irradiation131 5.7.3Interactions with conventional power plants132 5.8Electricity scenarios with export to Europe133 5.9Discussion of RESlion model and its results139 6Model development for socio-economic impact analysis142 6.1The idea of combining a cost-optimized electricity system with a socio-economic analysis142 6.2Literature review and terminology145 6.3Data acquisition and further studies148 6.4Model description of RETMD151 6.4.1Model objectives151 6.4.2Model structure and decision modeling152 6.4.3Model limitations and uncertainties156 6.5Data input of RETMD157 6.5.1Construction of reference power plants157 6.5.2Operation of reference power plants159 6.5.3Status quo of local manufacturing in recent RE projects160 6.6Sensitivity of RETMD on market size and know-how161 6.7Discussion of model achievements163 7Manufacturing and employment impact of optimized electricity scenarios165 7.1Demand scenarios for the RE markets from 2012 to 2030165 7.2Economic impact and employment creation166 7.3Technology specific development of local manufacturing168 7.4Country specific development of local manufacturing172 7.5Potentials of local manufacturing in each scenarios174 7.6Local economic impact176 7.7Local employment impact177 7.8Evaluation of scenario results181 7.9Electricity system analysis and RE manufacturing: Results and discussion of the combined analysis183 8Conclusions and outlook186 8.1Conclusion on model developments186 8.2Conclusion on renewable energy in North Africa187 8.3Outlook and further research189 9Bibliography191 10Appendix210 |
Subject(s)
info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/330; ddc:330; Erneuerbare Energien; Modellierung; Strom; Erneuerbare Energien, Nordafrika, Energiesystemmodellierung, Stromsystem, Optimierung, Wertschöpfung, Lokale Fertigung; Renewable Energy, North Africa, Energy System Modeling, Electricity System, Optimization, Value Added, Local Manufacturing |
Language
eng |
Relation
urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-141575; qucosa:27970 |
Type of publication
doc-type:doctoralThesis; info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis; doc-type:Text |
Rights
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
Identifier
urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-176538; 45437643X |
Repository
Dresden - Hochschulschriftenserver
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Added to C-A: 2018-08-28;07:08:33 |
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