Population projections for the Sudan, 1973-2003
Adam, Abbas Younis
Tne population issue in the Sudan has a peculiar nature v inspite of
the high growth rates, the country neither faces the problem of overpopulation,
nor lacK of land and water resources to produce enough food for her people, 'ihe
persistently high fertility and mortality rates, together with the large volume
of rural-urban migration, created a situation that perpetuates the prohlems
facing economic development in the Sudan.
The study endeavours to demonstrate how the treatment of the demographic
situation as an exogenous factor in economic development planning, is a selfdefeating
A holistic technique is used to develop a set of assumptions about the
expected behaviour of the various demographic variables. The assumptions were
generated on the basis of two considerations. Firstly, the interaction between .
the demographic variables and the socio-economic structure in the Sudan.
Secondly, the absence of any deliberate government policy to influence the
behaviour of the demographic variables.
Total population, as well as the provincial and the rural-urban
populations, are projected for 30 years, starting from the year 1973.
Tne analysis of various population characteristics at the end of the
projection period, facilitates the evaluation of any changes that may take place
througn the years.
The results indicate that, the high growth potential and the high rural
urban growth differentials will be retained. The need for the formulation of an
official population policy is highly empnasized.
Type of publication|
Canberra - Australian National University
Added to C-A: 2018-11-22;12:48:33|
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