Connecting-Africa | Find publications

Advanced search

Find:


Title An ecological adjusted random effect model for violent and property crime in Windhoek (2011-2016)
Full text http://hdl.handle.net/11070/3085
Date 2020
Author(s) Amunyela, Jonas
Abstract A research thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Applied Statistics and Demography - Count data that are zero inflated are often analysed using Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Generalized Linear Mixed Model (ZTNB-GLMM) when observations are correlated in ways that require random effects. The present study investigates ecological factors influencing Violent and Property crime in Windhoek by using data obtained from the Windhoek police over the period of six consecutive years (20 I I to 20 16). The ecological concepts were measured at several different levels of aggregation. Limited studies in Windhoek have considered analysing crime data on a newly established Generalized Linear Mixed Model via Template Model Builder (TMB) R-package. The researcher considered the number of reported Property and Violent crime for the study period as a quantitative design. Crime was counted with respect to Month, Season, Year, Location and Density. Through an exploratory study, it was found that both Property and Violent crime data contained more zeros than would be expected. Furthermore, in specifying the probability distribution using confidence interval, the researcher found out that the Negative Binomial distribution was appropriate for the two types of crime. Besides that, the lognormal distribution also appears to be an appropriate distribution for modeling Violent crime. However, when comparing models fitted in the context of these two distributions it was found that the Relative Risk (RR) were highly significant for models fitted via Negative Binomial distribution. By adopting a ZINB-GLMM, the study attempts to address the potential covariates for both Property and Violent crime. The study shows that most of the variation in the study of Property and Violent crime was due to locations. On average more Property crime (68%) was committed in Windhoek as compared to Violent crime (32%). Crime was high during Spring and Winter time during the study period. The study further discovered that areas with high population densities have a high crime intensity.
Subject(s) Crime intensity; Random effects; Zero-inflated
Language en
Publisher University of Namibia
Type of publication Thesis
Repository Windhoek - University of Namibia
Added to C-A: 2022-02-09;10:25:09