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Title
Using mobile phone data to reveal risk flow networks underlying the HIV epidemic in Namibia. |
Full text
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4vh9m7h3 |
Date
2021 |
Author(s)
Valdano, Eugenio; Okano, Justin T; Colizza, Vittoria; Mitonga, Honore K; Blower, Sally |
Abstract
Twenty-six million people are living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa; epidemics are widely dispersed, due to high levels of mobility. However, global elimination strategies do not consider mobility. We use Call Detail Records from 9 billion calls/texts to model mobility in Namibia; we quantify the epidemic-level impact by using a mathematical framework based on spatial networks. We find complex networks of risk flows dispersed risk countrywide: increasing the risk of acquiring HIV in some areas, decreasing it in others. Overall, 40% of risk was mobility-driven. Networks contained multiple risk hubs. All constituencies (administrative units) imported and exported risk, to varying degrees. A few exported very high levels of risk: their residents infected many residents of other constituencies. Notably, prevalence in the constituency exporting the most risk was below average. Large-scale networks of mobility-driven risk flows underlie generalized HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa. In order to eliminate HIV, it is likely to become increasingly important to implement innovative control strategies that focus on disrupting risk flows. |
Subject(s)
Humans; HIV Infections; Prevalence; Risk Factors; Sex Factors; Population Dynamics; Travel; Adolescent; Adult; Middle Aged; Africa South of the Sahara; Namibia; Female; Male; Young Adult; Epidemics; Spatio-Temporal Analysis; Cell Phone; Infectious Diseases; HIV/AIDS; Prevention; Infection |
Coverage
2837 |
Publisher
eScholarship, University of California |
Type of publication
article |
Format
application/pdf |
Source
Nature communications, vol 12, iss 1 |
Rights
public |
Identifier
qt4vh9m7h3 |
Repository
Berkeley - University of California
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Added to C-A: 2023-02-09;07:34:53 |
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