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Title Examination of the effects of macroeconomic shocks on the Namibian economy
Full text http://hdl.handle.net/11070/3730
Date 2023
Author(s) Mabuku, Mubusisi Mac Beath
Abstract A dissertation submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of doctor of philosophy in economic - This Dissertation is structured on three stand-alone objectives which investigated the effects of macroeconomic shocks on the Namibian economy between 1980 and 2018. Firstly, the study estimated the dynamic effects of fiscal policy shocks through the SVAR approach. IRFs results reveal that a positive spending shock immediately increases output and interest rates while decreasing inflation. A positive tax revenue shock increases inflation two years after impact while decreasing interest rates at impact. Secondly, the effects of external shocks were examined through the VAR technique. IRFs show that global output shock positively affects domestic output growth and interest rate, whereas the impact on inflation is negative immediately. A positive US monetary policy shock raises domestic interest rates and inflation while simultaneously exerting a negative influence on domestic economic growth. A positive oil price shock in the first period yields a decline in domestic GDP growth while raising the interest rate, albeit marginally. The impact on inflation is muted in the first year though it is negative beyond the second period. FEVDs reflect that domestic real GDP growth is significantly influenced by global output shocks whereas variations on both interest rate and inflation are explained largely by US monetary policy shock. Thirdly, it investigated the impacts of mineral commodity (copper and uranium) price shocks (positive and negative changes) on Namibia's business cycles (real GDP). To determine cointegration and presence of asymmetric effects, a new stepwise-least squares NARDL model was adopted. Outcomes reveal a long-run cointegration among real GDP, commodity prices, investment and exports shares of GDP. Moreover, the study unveiled that both copper and uranium prices have asymmetric impacts on Namibia's business cycle. Positive changes for both commodity prices have the greatest impact on real GDP than negative variations. ii The study recommends the following: first, to spur sustainable economic growth, thereby significantly contributing towards the achievement of the country's socio economic development, expansionary fiscal policy especially increasing public (productive) spending is recommended. Pursuance of counter-cyclical fiscal policy is commended specifically during low-growth periods to smoothen the business cycle. Second, increased integration with the global economy and industrialisation/diversification are recommended to ensure output growth while simultaneously cushioning the economy from external shocks and serving as a buffer against volatile commodity prices. Third, to mitigate fluctuations from external shocks, robust macroeconomic policy intervention is strongly recommended
Subject(s) External Shocks; Fiscal policy shocks; Vector Autoregressions; Structural Vector Autoregressions; Impulse Response Functions; Forecast Error Variance Decomposition; NARDL; Business Cycles; Commodity Prices
Language en
Publisher University of Namibia
Type of publication Thesis
Repository Windhoek - University of Namibia
Added to C-A: 2023-10-25;11:25:22